{"id":45666,"date":"2019-03-12T11:49:01","date_gmt":"2019-03-12T04:49:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/seminar_20190311\/"},"modified":"2025-03-20T09:23:09","modified_gmt":"2025-03-20T02:23:09","slug":"seminar_20190311","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/en\/seminar_20190311\/","title":{"rendered":"Production Management System Supporting Manufacturing to Win Global Competition in Indonesia"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Having worked in manufacturing systems in Indonesia for a long time, I\u2019ve noticed that compared to the past, customers frequently change order quantities and delivery dates. This makes it hard to revise production plans in time, affecting raw material procurement and often leading to discussions about having too much or too little inventory.<br \/>\nGenerally, within the supply chain, too little inventory increases the risk of order backlogs and missed shipping opportunities, while too much inventory incurs interest costs\u2014a classic trade-off problem.<br \/>\nTo address this, I\u2019ll explain how to build a system for demand forecasting that considers internal production equipment supply capacity, using case studies as examples.<br \/>\nThe flow of this discussion will first outline the challenges faced by Indonesian manufacturing as issues of concern, clarify analytical perspectives as a framework for examining these issues, present system design methods as the main argument, and conclude with specific case studies.<br \/>\n\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/en\/indonesia-scheduler\/\" class=\"st-cardlink\" aria-label=\"Production Scheduler in Indonesia\">\r\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"kanren st-cardbox\" >\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<dl class=\"clearfix\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<dt class=\"st-card-img\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/1-18-150x150.png\" class=\"attachment-st_thumb150 size-st_thumb150 wp-post-image\" alt=\"\u30a4\u30f3\u30c9\u30cd\u30b7\u30a2\u306e\u751f\u7523\u30b9\u30b1\u30b8\u30e5\u30fc\u30e9\u30fc\u307e\u3068\u3081\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/1-18-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/1-18-100x100.png 100w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 150px) 100vw, 150px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/dt>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<dd>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"st-cardbox-t\">Production Scheduler in Indonesia<\/p>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"st-card-excerpt smanone\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>In Indonesia&#8217;s Japanese manufacturing industry, the adoption of production management systems has been increasing. However, when it comes to one of the key challenges in production management\u2014creating feasible production plans that take machine and equipment loads into account\u2014manual work using Excel remains the standard practice. As a result, the demand for production schedulers is expected to grow in the future.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"cardbox-more\">\u7d9a\u304d\u3092\u898b\u308b<\/p>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/dd>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/dl>\r\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\r\n\t\t\t\t<\/a>\r\n\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<h2>Company Overview<\/h2>\n<p>Regarding our business, in addition to the production scheduler Asprova, we\u2019ve developed a business development template called HanaFirst.<br \/>\nThis is my personal opinion, but I believe only certain administrative tasks like accounting can be standardized. Operations like production management, inventory management, and order management are determined by relationships across the entire supply chain with customers and suppliers, making system standardization difficult.<br \/>\nThus, while it\u2019s labor-intensive, we must diligently gather business requirements and implement them into the system. HanaFirst\u2019s concept is to shortcut this implementation process using templates.<\/p>\n<h2>Recent Challenges for Indonesian Manufacturing (Issues of Concern)<\/h2>\n<div class=\"graybox\">\n<ul>\n<li>As economic growth raises national income levels and information tools like SNS advance, final consumers\u2019 preferences diversify. However, amidst a flood of goods and information, boredom sets in quickly, shortening product lifecycles.<\/li>\n<li>This makes demand forecasting within the supply chain harder. Combined with intensified competition from quality improvements by rival firms in other countries, order quantities inevitably shrink into smaller lots, and order changes become frequent.<\/li>\n<li>The burden of smaller lots and order changes has a multiplier effect across the supply chain, complicating optimal inventory control. To avoid opportunity loss, companies become conservative, leading to higher inventory costs.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-45281 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1087.png\" alt=\"Impact of Diversifying Consumer Preferences and Shortened Product Lifecycles\" width=\"711\" height=\"357\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1087.png 1001w, https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1087-300x150.png 300w, https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1087-768x385.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 711px) 100vw, 711px\" \/>First, let\u2019s confirm the challenges faced by Japanese manufacturing firms in Indonesia and clarify the issues of concern.<br \/>\nA typical product lifecycle follows the pattern of introduction, growth, maturity, and decline, as shown in the graph above. As a country\u2019s economy grows and income levels rise, consumer preferences diversify and fragment, shortening product lifecycles.<br \/>\nThis is evident in Japan: in an environment overflowing with goods and information, people grow bored quickly. Especially with the rise of SNS like Instagram and Facebook, new information spreads rapidly, and consumers shift to the next product just as fast.<br \/>\nIn Indonesia, with a population of 260 million, 140 million are internet users\u2014mostly via smartphones, primarily for SNS. This accelerates information diffusion and shortens trend cycles.<br \/>\nEssentially, there\u2019s a shift from long-lifecycle, low-variety, high-volume production to short-lifecycle, high-variety, low-volume production, naturally increasing the trend toward smaller lot sizes in procurement, production, and shipping across the supply chain.<br \/>\nAs product lifecycles shorten and customer order units shrink, companies\u2019 procurement units to suppliers also shrink, leading to shorter lifecycles and smaller lots across the supply chain.<br \/>\nThis automatically reduces the accuracy of future demand forecasts. Frequent order changes\u2014delivery date or quantity adjustments against initial forecasts\u2014necessitate plan revisions.<br \/>\nOrder changes ripple multiplicatively across the supply chain, increasing the risk of production line stoppages due to delayed raw material deliveries from suppliers. To mitigate this, companies hold extra inventory, driving up costs in a vicious cycle.<br \/>\n<img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-45448 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1095.png\" alt=\"Background of Smaller Lot Sizes and Shorter Delivery Times for Orders\" width=\"651\" height=\"438\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1095.png 744w, https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1095-300x202.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 651px) 100vw, 651px\" \/><br \/>\nWith Indonesia\u2019s growing domestic demand, order numbers are rising, but the customer base now includes non-Japanese local firms, reducing per-order quantities.<br \/>\nPreviously, the top priority was delivering to key customers on time without delays. Now, with smaller lot sizes flowing through the supply chain, customer numbers grow, and delivery destinations diversify.<br \/>\nAs you know, manufacturers from China, Korea, and Hong Kong have entered Indonesia, and local manufacturers\u2019 quality has improved. Companies can\u2019t refuse small-lot, short-delivery orders.<br \/>\nRecently, an Indonesian official supporting SMEs noted that while 90% of cars on the road are Japanese, Japanese parts makers\u2019 local procurement rates are extremely low. With 20,000 Japanese residents compared to 50,000 Koreans, they urged more Japanese presence.<br \/>\nKorea\u2019s unemployment rate is about double Japan\u2019s 2.5%, so many come with a do-or-die mindset, unlike Japanese expatriates assured of returning home after a five-year term. This suggests an increasingly tough business environment for Japanese firms.<br \/>\nAlongside these changes, shifts in final consumer demand impose a multiplier effect through the supply chain, burdening production with high-variety, small-lot, short-delivery demands.<br \/>\n<img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-45434 \" src=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1093.png\" alt=\"Demand Forecast Uncertainty Complicates Inventory Control\" width=\"622\" height=\"429\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1093.png 725w, https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1093-300x207.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 622px) 100vw, 622px\" \/><br \/>\nAs mentioned, shorter product lifecycles make future production forecasts harder, complicating optimal inventory maintenance.<br \/>\nWhen maintaining optimal inventory becomes difficult, department heads in the internal supply chain grow conservative, fearing shipping, production, or supply delays. Shipping staff want more inventory as demand uncertainty rises, production staff want to produce more, and procurement staff want to order more.<br \/>\nLate raw material deliveries from suppliers halt production lines\u2014a scenario to avoid at all costs. However, delays occur due to supplier constraints or unreasonable order conditions from our side.<br \/>\nSupplier procurement delays or equipment issues causing late deliveries are beyond control, but the complexity of procurement due to smaller lot sizes in the supply chain\u2014leading to\u7121\u7406\u306a schedules or delivery changes requested from suppliers\u2014is a self-inflicted issue.<br \/>\nRaw material delays require production plan revisions, reducing productivity with line stoppages, increasing fixed costs via overtime or weekend work for recovery, and worsening company profitability.<br \/>\n<img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-45454 \" src=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1096.png\" alt=\"Smaller Lots Increase Burden on Production Lines\" width=\"640\" height=\"430\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1096.png 744w, https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1096-300x202.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><br \/>\nTo handle high-variety, low-volume production with limited equipment, process lines must be subdivided, shared lines increased, and utilization rates boosted. However, per-order production lead times shorten, and with high-variety, small-lot orders, setup changes like mold swaps or cleaning rise.<br \/>\nThis causes variability in production lead times from initial input to completion\u2014due to item type, quantity, and line congestion\u2014reducing delivery date accuracy. On-site, linking orders becomes unclear, making it hard to prioritize tasks, worsening on-time delivery rates.<br \/>\nTo avoid material shortages, overly conservative material plans increase material and work-in-progress inventory.<br \/>\n<img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-45458 \" src=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1097.png\" alt=\"Rising Labor Costs in Indonesia\" width=\"606\" height=\"428\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1097.png 708w, https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1097-300x212.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 606px) 100vw, 606px\" \/><br \/>\nWhile not directly tied to supply chain material flows or factory production, one serious issue for Japanese firms in Indonesia is the annual rise in minimum wages.<br \/>\nIn the West Java industrial belt (Jakarta, Bekasi, Karawang), wages are about double those in Central Java, explaining the appeal of migrant work.<br \/>\nIndonesia is often said to strongly protect workers\u2019 rights. Under Labor Law (UU No 13 Tahun 2003), the trickiest part is termination payments: severance (uang pesangon), service recognition pay (uang penghargaan masa kerja), and compensation for lost entitlements (uang penggantian hak yang seharusnya diterima). Like a supersized ramen order, termination costs pile up significantly.<br \/>\n<img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-45437 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1094.png\" alt=\"Rise of Other Asian and Indonesian Firms\" width=\"647\" height=\"431\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1094.png 750w, https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1094-300x200.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 647px) 100vw, 647px\" \/><br \/>\nAmong foreign firms in Indonesia, manufacturing leads by industry, with West Java (Bekasi, Karawang industrial parks) hosting the most, followed by Singapore, Japan, China, Hong Kong, and Korea by country.<br \/>\nAs noted, many from China and Korea come with a high-stakes mindset, unlike Japanese staff guaranteed repatriation after five years. This reflects Indonesia\u2019s increasingly tough business climate.<br \/>\n<img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-45584 \" src=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1125.png\" alt=\"Internal Factors Raising Information Management Costs\" width=\"654\" height=\"457\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1125.png 715w, https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1125-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 654px) 100vw, 654px\" \/><br \/>\nIn Japan, JSOX (internal control rules under the 2006 Financial Instruments and Exchange Act) emphasizes IT controls and audits for corporate compliance. In Indonesia, it\u2019s a sieve-like state.<\/p>\n<h2>Demand Forecasting and Inventory Costs in the Supply Chain (Analytical Perspective)<\/h2>\n<div class=\"graybox\">\n<ul>\n<li>Supply Chain Management involves managing the company as the center between upstream raw material suppliers and downstream final consumers. Goods flow with added value, but changes in demand and supply ripple outward with amplifying effects.<\/li>\n<li>Synchronizing and centralizing planning across departments improves demand forecast accuracy, shortens internal inventory retention, prevents opportunity loss, and achieves optimal inventory to reduce costs.<\/li>\n<li>Inventory costs consist of manufacturing costs and SG&amp;A, but there\u2019s also an invisible financial inventory interest cost, an off-balance-sheet liability that later manifests as profit compression.<\/li>\n<li>Reasons for bearing inventory costs in-house include bridging production and order lead time gaps and maintaining buffers to avoid stopping bottleneck processes.<\/li>\n<li>To maintain optimal inventory, PO issuance and production instructions within the internal supply chain must rely on accurate demand forecasts.<\/li>\n<li>If demand forecasts were 100% accurate or supply capacity were 100%, zero inventory would suffice. In reality, limited supply capacity requires minimal safety stock while aligning demand, adjusting business, sales, production, and procurement plans for the shortest linkage\u2014today\u2019s theme, impossible without considering supply capacity in forecasts.<\/li>\n<li>Thus, supply chain capability is measured by responsiveness, flexibility, and reliability.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-45462 \" src=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1098.png\" alt=\"Our Factory Within the Supply Chain\" width=\"647\" height=\"450\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1098.png 719w, https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1098-300x209.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 647px) 100vw, 647px\" \/><br \/>\nNext, I\u2019ll outline analytical perspectives to address recent Indonesian challenges\u2014burden from high-variety, low-volume production, increased planning revision load from frequent order changes, and difficulty in optimal inventory control\u2014raised in the previous section.<br \/>\nThis diagram shows \u201cour factory\u2019s position in the supply chain.\u201d Typically, the number of players increases upstream or downstream from the factory.<br \/>\nThe supply chain is a series of processes from procuring materials or products, adding value, and delivering to customers\u2014from raw materials to end users. Supply Chain Management involves logically organizing this, viewing the factory as the center of upstream (to raw materials) and downstream (to end users) chains.<br \/>\nToday, various business models exist, and shady online schemes abound, with many fixated on extracting money digitally. Fundamentally, economic activity involves goods and services flowing through the supply chain with added value.<br \/>\n<img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-45467 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1099.png\" alt=\"Ripple Effects of Quantity, Price, and Delivery Fluctuations in the Supply Chain\" width=\"624\" height=\"443\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1099.png 704w, https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1099-300x213.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" \/><br \/>\nSupply fluctuations from upstream to downstream and demand fluctuations from downstream to upstream amplify as they chain through the supply chain, a whip-like motion called the bullwhip effect.<br \/>\nSpecifically, raw material supplier delays amplify impacts on production, logistics (shipping), and final consumers, while consumer demand changes amplify effects on logistics, producers, and raw material suppliers.<br \/>\n<img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-45475 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1100.png\" alt=\"Flow of Goods and Information in Our Factory\" width=\"629\" height=\"436\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1100.png 722w, https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1100-300x208.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 629px) 100vw, 629px\" \/><br \/>\nControlling the flow of goods and information within our factory, at the supply chain\u2019s center, relies on plans adjusted for supply and demand by each department\u2019s staff.<br \/>\nWhile plans are made at each level based on supply-demand adjustments, they\u2019re typically created independently without coordination. This may optimize individual departments but not the company as a whole\u2014a phenomenon called partial optimization.<br \/>\nAs mentioned, economic activity involves goods and services flowing with added value. When departments create partially optimized plans, connections between them become disjointed, likely causing unnecessary inventory buildup and failing to achieve optimal inventory.<br \/>\n<img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-45479 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1101.png\" alt=\"Product and Inventory Costs Incurred Within Our Factory\" width=\"604\" height=\"433\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1101.png 698w, https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1101-300x215.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 604px) 100vw, 604px\" \/><br \/>\nSo far, we\u2019ve focused on material flows. Now, let\u2019s consider costs incurred by goods flowing through the supply chain.<br \/>\nManufacturing products incurs direct material costs, direct labor costs, and manufacturing overheads\u2014collectively manufacturing costs\u2014followed by SG&amp;A costs like storage and advertising.<br \/>\nThese are recorded as expenses in financial accounting, but holding inventory imposes a cash burden without direct outflow, converted into a managerial accounting inventory interest cost based on retention period.<br \/>\nInventory interest costs include cash flow strain from inventory value, lost interest from banking that cash, borrowing costs for raw material purchases, opportunity costs from warehouse space occupation, and risks of impairment, spoilage, or dead stock. These invisible costs, unrecorded in accounting entries, later become visible, harming profitability as off-balance-sheet liabilities.<br \/>\n<img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-45482 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1102.png\" alt=\"Why Inventory Is an Interest Cost\" width=\"639\" height=\"422\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1102.png 757w, https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1102-300x198.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 639px) 100vw, 639px\" \/><br \/>\nFactors raising inventory interest costs include safety stock, line stoppages from machine issues, and production halts from protests or labor disputes. Longer inventory days negatively impact cash flow, making it an off-balance-sheet liability not reflected on the B\/S.<br \/>\n<img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-45486 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1103.png\" alt=\"Why Inventory Is Needed Despite Costs\" width=\"605\" height=\"424\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1103.png 714w, https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1103-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 605px) 100vw, 605px\" \/><br \/>\nThis might paint inventory as a villain, but there are legitimate reasons to bear its costs in-house.<br \/>\nOne reason is to bridge the gap between production and order lead times. Typically, the order lead time from customer order to shipment is shorter than the production lead time from start to finish, requiring inventory as insurance for the difference.<br \/>\nAnother is the need for buffer inventory to keep bottleneck processes\u2014determining factory productivity\u2014running.<br \/>\nShipping staff want more inventory as demand uncertainty grows, and production staff want to produce more to avoid opportunity loss\u2014a psychological drive.<br \/>\n<img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-45490 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1104.png\" alt=\"Opportunity Loss and Inventory Costs Are a Trade-Off\" width=\"662\" height=\"446\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1104.png 742w, https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1104-300x202.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 662px) 100vw, 662px\" \/><br \/>\nIn manufacturing operations, two key supply chain quantity decisions occur: PO issuance and production instruction issuance. The \u201ctrade-off between opportunity loss (order backlog) and inventory costs (excess inventory)\u201d means: at PO issuance, stockouts halting lines are feared, but overbuying is troublesome; at production instruction issuance, missing shipment deadlines is bad, but overproducing is problematic.<br \/>\nThus, maintaining optimal inventory requires overcoming fears of inventory costs (excess) and opportunity loss (backlogs) with accurate demand forecasts at PO or production instruction issuance.<br \/>\n<img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-45494 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1105.png\" alt=\"Metrics to Reduce Inventory Costs\" width=\"650\" height=\"450\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1105.png 722w, https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1105-300x208.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 650px) 100vw, 650px\" \/><br \/>\nIn extremes, if demand forecasts were 100% accurate, preparing lead time ahead of due dates would suffice regardless of supply capacity (lead time). If supply capacity were 100% (instant delivery), forecasts wouldn\u2019t be needed\u2014both achieving zero inventory.<br \/>\nIn reality, supply capacity constraints necessitate minimal safety stock while meeting demand, adjusting business, sales, production, and procurement plans for the shortest linkage.<br \/>\nThus, supply chain capability metrics are responsiveness (lead time), flexibility (change adaptation), and reliability (on-time delivery).<br \/>\n<img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-45592 \" src=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1126.png\" alt=\"Time-Saving Effects of Unified Departmental Planning\" width=\"631\" height=\"431\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1126.png 732w, https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1126-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 631px) 100vw, 631px\" \/><br \/>\nDepartment-specific supply-demand plans\u2014business, sales, production, procurement\u2014optimized for each aren\u2019t necessarily optimal for preceding or following departments, causing wait times.<br \/>\nOverall optimization means seamlessly linking department plans.<\/p>\n<h2>Systemizing Planning with Supply Capacity Consideration (Main Argument)<\/h2>\n<div class=\"graybox\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li>Planning production with departmental supply capacities means creating an overall optimized plan where business, sales, production, and procurement plans connect without strain.<\/li>\n<li>In systemizing planning, differing inter-process supply capacities mean varying takt times, making the slowest bottleneck process the factory\u2019s production capacity.<\/li>\n<li>After lead time offsetting, overloaded tasks on specific days are shifted to other days or equipment\u2014APS automates this.<\/li>\n<li>Fixed lead time plans, ignoring process capacity, are rough, while cycle-time-based plans consider capacity for a seamlessly connected, overall optimized plan.<\/li>\n<li>MRP\u2019s infinite capacity loading with fixed lead time offsetting is a capacity plan; MRPII\u2019s finite capacity leveling with cycle times is a cycle-time plan.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<p>So far, we\u2019ve seen that recent challenges for Japanese manufacturers in Indonesia\u2014burden from high-variety, low-volume production, planning revision load from frequent order changes, and optimal inventory control difficulty\u2014stem from a trade-off between opportunity loss risk and inventory interest costs in supplier-customer supply chain dynamics. Addressing this requires demand forecasting with production equipment supply capacity in mind. Here, we\u2019ll explore designing such a system.<br \/>\n\u201cSupply capacity varies\u201d means takt and lot sizes differ between upstream (molding, pressing) and downstream (assembly, welding) processes, often leading to intermediate inventory buildup upstream for downstream digestion. Reducing setup time requires larger lots, while reducing inventory needs smaller lots\u2014overall optimization considers inter-process capacity and setup times.<br \/>\nLot sizes flowing between processes depend on the bottleneck, whose delayed takt affects overall takt and output.<br \/>\n<img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-45500 \" src=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1106.png\" alt=\"Shifting Overloaded Lots for Leveling\" width=\"655\" height=\"455\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1106.png 720w, https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1106-300x208.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 655px) 100vw, 655px\" \/><br \/>\nWhen planning production, lead times are offset by day, but simply offsetting can overload specific days beyond equipment capacity\u2014commonly called MRP (Material Requirement Planning) lead time offsetting.<br \/>\nOverloaded tasks must shift to other days or equipment. APS (Advanced Planning and Scheduling), or \u201c\u5148\u9032\u7684\u8a08\u753b\uff06\u30b9\u30b1\u30b8\u30e5\u30fc\u30ea\u30f3\u30b0\u201d in Japanese, is an overall optimization-oriented advanced scheduling method considering equipment load. The production scheduler Asprova, introduced today, realizes APS in a system.<br \/>\n<img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-45507 \" src=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1108.png\" alt=\"Shortening Lead Time with Machine Capacity and Setup Consideration\" width=\"609\" height=\"424\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1108.png 718w, https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1108-300x209.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 609px) 100vw, 609px\" \/><br \/>\nTo \u201cshorten lead time with machine capacity and setup consideration,\u201d set cycle times (seconds per unit for specific equipment) instead of fixed lead times.<br \/>\nFixed lead time plans, ignoring process capacity, are rough, while cycle-time-based plans consider capacity for a seamlessly connected, overall optimized plan.<br \/>\n<img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-45511 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1109.png\" alt=\"Maximizing Bottleneck Process Utilization\" width=\"657\" height=\"430\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1109.png 764w, https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1109-300x196.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 657px) 100vw, 657px\" \/><br \/>\nAs noted, supply capacity varies, and factory production capacity hinges on the bottleneck. Planning maximizes bottleneck utilization, then schedules preceding and following processes for overall optimization.<br \/>\n<img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-45514 \" src=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1110.png\" alt=\"Inventory Reduction by Considering Supply Capacity\" width=\"643\" height=\"450\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1110.png 714w, https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1110-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 643px) 100vw, 643px\" \/><br \/>\nCentering plans on the bottleneck eliminates work-in-progress buildup before it, ensuring just-in-time flow of necessary items aligned with bottleneck takt.<br \/>\n<img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-45517 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1111.png\" alt=\"Ultimate Goal of Planning Systemization: Cash Flow Improvement\" width=\"614\" height=\"425\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1111.png 722w, https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1111-300x208.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 614px) 100vw, 614px\" \/><br \/>\nConsidering supply capacity seamlessly connects processes, shortening production lead times and reducing in-process inventory, lowering inventory interest costs, extending cash retention, and boosting profitability.<br \/>\n<img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-45520 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1112.png\" alt=\"Dividing Planning Scope for Systemization\" width=\"639\" height=\"441\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1112.png 724w, https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1112-300x207.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 639px) 100vw, 639px\" \/><br \/>\nExpressing this systematically: MRP\u2019s infinite capacity loading with fixed lead time offsetting is a capacity plan; MRPII\u2019s finite capacity leveling with cycle times is a cycle-time plan, corresponding to APS.<br \/>\n<img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-45525 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1113.png\" alt=\"Scope of MRP1 and MRP2\" width=\"659\" height=\"452\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1113.png 729w, https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1113-300x206.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 659px) 100vw, 659px\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>End-to-End System Case Study from Order to Procurement (Conclusion: Examples)<\/h2>\n<div class=\"graybox\">\n<ul>\n<li>So far, we\u2019ve discussed how planning with cycle times (seconds per unit) to maximize bottleneck utilization shortens lead times, reduces inventory, and improves cash flow by considering supply capacity. Now, we\u2019ll explore systemizing this flow.<\/li>\n<li>Current production planning starts with order data to create a shipping plan, followed by a monthly production plan based on product completion dates. MRP calculates requirements via the BOM, offsets net requirements (post-inventory deduction) by lead time for a production schedule, and levels overloaded tasks by shifting days or equipment.<\/li>\n<li>In this manual planning, poor sales-production communication often leads to production-centric plans, and even leveled plans remain partially optimized with excessive wait times.<\/li>\n<li>For overall optimization, end-to-end management from order to production and procurement is needed to create production flow.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-45562 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1119.png\" alt=\"Your Current Staff\u2019s Production Planning Process\" width=\"638\" height=\"445\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1119.png 717w, https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1119-300x209.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 638px) 100vw, 638px\" \/><br \/>\nSummarizing prior sections, I\u2019ll present a system implementation example achieving lead time reduction, inventory reduction, and cash flow improvement via cycle-time-based, finite-capacity load leveling.<br \/>\nSales gathers order\/forecast data in Excel, creates a production plan for shipping, calculates required parts and materials per process via the BOM, computes net requirements after inventory deduction, offsets production lots by lead time days per process, and levels overloaded days\u2019 quantities.<br \/>\nLeveling overloaded days\u2014shifting tasks to other days or equipment\u2014creates a chain reaction of displacing pre-assigned tasks, making adjustments challenging.<br \/>\n<img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-45567 \" src=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1120.png\" alt=\"Two Issues with Current Planning\" width=\"654\" height=\"421\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1120.png 777w, https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1120-300x193.png 300w, https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1120-768x494.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 654px) 100vw, 654px\" \/><br \/>\nFirst, sales plans shipments to meet customer needs, but PPIC staff, focusing solely on production, create discretionary plans, leading to partial optimization. This delays status updates and delivery responses to customers, as well as handling order quantity\/delivery changes and rush orders.<br \/>\nSecond, Excel-based planning inevitably optimizes lots for each process without considering preceding\/following process capacities or loads. Simple lead time offsetting followed by leveling tends toward partial optimization, potentially overwhelming downstream processes, increasing wait times and inventory.<br \/>\n<img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-45570 \" src=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1121.png\" alt=\"End-to-End Management from Order to Production and Procurement for Production Flow\" width=\"641\" height=\"441\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1121.png 727w, https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1121-300x206.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 641px) 100vw, 641px\" \/><br \/>\nTo avoid partial optimization and create an overall optimized plan, end-to-end management from order to production and procurement is essential for production flow.<br \/>\nProcess management systems, dividing control by process, limit lead time reduction. Internal process barriers stack inventory between processes, lengthening production lead times. These barriers stagnate material and information flows, easing lead times and increasing work-in-progress.<br \/>\nThis underscores the importance of\u4e32\u523a\u3057 (skewering) processes to create production flow.<br \/>\n<img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-45573 \" src=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1122.png\" alt=\"System Linking Orders, Production Plans, and Process Management\" width=\"640\" height=\"485\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1122.png 660w, https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1122-300x227.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><br \/>\nSeamless linkage from order data to production planning, procurement orders, process performance management, and shipping is critical.<br \/>\n<img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-45577 \" src=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1123.png\" alt=\"Core System Implementation Example\" width=\"656\" height=\"446\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1123.png 735w, https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1123-300x204.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 656px) 100vw, 656px\" \/><br \/>\nThis is the system implementation image of the \u201csystem linking orders, production plans, and process management\u201d overview.<br \/>\n<img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-45580 \" src=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1124.png\" alt=\"Visible Investment Benefits\" width=\"636\" height=\"400\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1124.png 795w, https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1124-300x189.png 300w, https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1124-768x483.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 636px) 100vw, 636px\" \/><br \/>\nPost-system \u201cvisible IT investment benefits\u201d include:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ol>\n<li>Monthly production plan creation load: Reduced from 3 days to 3 hours\u2014no more late-night overtime before supply-demand meetings.<\/li>\n<li>Handling plan changes: Previously, order changes couldn\u2019t be re-adjusted, but post-scheduler, rescheduling for delivery\/quantity changes maintains high-accuracy plans.<\/li>\n<li>Process task visibility: Site staff know which days\u2019 shipments are being produced. Attaching route tickets to pallets aligns system links with physical inter-process flow.<\/li>\n<li>Constraint-based scheduling: Orders due within the same week are automatically consolidated into production plans.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>Orders due within the same week are automatically consolidated into production plans.<br \/>\n<b>Enables highly accurate demand forecasting considering internal production equipment capacity.<\/b><\/p>\n<h2>Functions of Production Scheduler Asprova<\/h2>\n<p>For basic function details, refer to the <a href=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/en\/seminar_20181214\/\">December 2018 seminar<\/a>.<br \/>\n<img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-45553 \" src=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1117.png\" alt=\"Managerial Accounting with Asprova\" width=\"665\" height=\"424\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1117.png 784w, https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1117-300x191.png 300w, https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1117-768x490.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 665px) 100vw, 665px\" \/><br \/>\nIn Asprova\u2019s item table, set material standard unit prices, labor rates (cost per minute) and efficiency (minutes per unit) or utilization (cost per minute) or allocation rates (cost per unit) for work-in-progress and products, calculate standard unit prices, and derive cost budgets based on sales forecasts to aid pricing decisions:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Direct material costs: Standard unit price \u00d7 planned input quantity<\/li>\n<li>Direct labor costs: Labor rate \u00d7 efficiency \u00d7 planned production quantity<\/li>\n<li>Depreciation costs: Utilization rate \u00d7 efficiency \u00d7 planned production quantity<\/li>\n<li>Other expenses: Allocation rate \u00d7 planned production quantity<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Using next period\u2019s sales forecast, Asprova\u2019s MRP calculates planned production quantities and direct labor hours for products\/work-in-progress, and planned material input quantities.<br \/>\nHowever, Asprova doesn\u2019t auto-calculate labor or allocation rates from budgets, so these are computed in Excel externally and set in the item table.<br \/>\nThis enables cost budgets and per-unit standard prices based on next period\u2019s sales forecast, facilitating pricing simulations.<br \/>\n<img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-45556 \" src=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1118.png\" alt=\"Kanban Card Calculation with Asprova\" width=\"655\" height=\"425\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1118.png 770w, https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1118-300x195.png 300w, https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1118-768x499.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 655px) 100vw, 655px\" \/><br \/>\nIn Indonesia, firms supplying four-wheeler parts to TMMIN (PT Toyota Motor Manufacturing Indonesia) or ADM (PT Astra Daihatsu Motor) likely have production lines where goods flow per kanban.<br \/>\nImport next month\u2019s forecast into Asprova, calculate net requirements per item via MRP, divide by operating days for daily needs, and compute kanban cards using kanban L\/T, processing L\/T, safety stock days, and capacity from the master, adjusting monthly circulating kanban cards.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Having worked in manufacturing systems in Indonesia for a long time, I\u2019ve noticed that compared to the past, customers frequently change order quantities and delivery dates. This makes it hard to revise production plans in time, affecting raw material procurement and often leading to discussions about having too much or too little inventory.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":45679,"parent":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[619],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45666","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-production-scheduler"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45666","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45666"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45666\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/45679"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45666"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45666"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bahtera.jp\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45666"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}