Current affairs

Impact of the Spread of a Novel Coronavirus on ASEAN and Indian Manufacturing Industries【July 6, JETRO Webinar】

2020/07/06

インドネシア日系企業の新型コロナウイルスによる影響【駐在員の一時帰国状況と製造業の生産状況】

It's an interesting story about the impact of the spread of the new coronavirus in Indonesia on the manufacturing industry compared to Vietnam, Thailand and India, but in each country, the motorcycle and four-wheeled vehicle industry is having a significant impact on the market, but there are also hopes for special demand for New Normal, brought about by changes in lifestyles in response to new lifestyles.
There is a shift in imports from other countries to their home countries due to stagnant supply chains, a shift in production from China due to escalating trade friction between the U.S. and China, an increase in the production and export of IT-related equipment as people's lifestyles come online, and an increase in sales of energy-saving air conditioners as people spend more time at home, as well as air purifiers as people become more clean.

Vietnam, where only 355 people have been infected (340 who have recovered), zero deaths, and the only new infections since April 17 are those who have returned from overseas and zero citywide infections.In Thailand, the total number of infected people has been 3,190 (3,071 recovered) and 58 deaths, and the number of new infections in June remains in the single digits.Indonesia and India, where the number of infections is increasing due to the relaxation of PSBB in June and lockdown in July.pic.twitter.com/yoqhI2vuPC

Vietnam - 868 of the 1,848 Japanese companies are in the manufacturing sector (as of July 2019)

The fact that the total number of people infected up to July 5 was only 355 (340 recovered) and the number of deaths is still zero, and that the only new infections since April 17 have been from returnees from overseas and the number of citywide infections has been zero, is a testament to the quickness of the Vietnamese government's initial action to prevent infection, which halted the entry of foreigners on March 22 and implemented social quarantine measures on April 1, as well as its thorough waterfront measures, disclosure of information, and thorough tracking, testing, isolation, and treatment of infected people if they did appear.

New car sales for January-May 2020 fell 34.5% y/y to 83,000 units, while car production fell 41.6% to 74,000 units, as a result of increased demand at WFH for products for smartphones and servers and components for PCs and smartphones, and as a result of increased demand in the first quarter (January-March) for electronics and electrical Although production growth grew by 14.3% y-o-y, GDP growth was only 3.82% (estimated) in the first quarter (January-March), the lowest level in a decade since the Lehman shock.

Thailand - 2,346 of the 5,444 Japanese companies are in the manufacturing industry (as of May 2017)

The total number of infected people until July 5 was 3,190 (3,071 recovered), and the number of fatalities was 58. The state of emergency was declared on March 26, and the curfew was lifted on June 15, as the number of infected people in June remained almost at the single-digit level as a result of the ban on foreigners entering the country and the implementation of the night-time curfew measures.

In May 2020, Thailand's new car sales fell 54% y/y to 40,418 units, while April's car production fell 83.6% y/y to 24,711 units, and production of electronics and electrical equipment such as computer components, HDDs, and electrical control panels is as strong as in Vietnam, but in the first quarter of 2020 Thailand's GDP was -1.8%, the first negative growth in six years.

Indonesia - 871 of the 1,489 Japanese companies are in the manufacturing sector (as of November 2019)

Through July 5, the total number of infections and deaths has been 64,958 (29,919 recovered) and 3,241 deaths, with the number of new infections per day ranging from 1,000 to 1,500 and rising steadily.
The entry of foreigners was suspended in principle on April 2 (except for KITAS holders) and the PSBB has been in effect since April 10 but has been phased out since June.

New car sales were down 90% in April, production was down 80%, and the annual car shipment target for 2020 was lowered from 1.08 million to 600,000 units, despite the challenging situation.
In line with Making Indonesia 4.0, some companies will continue to invest in the introduction of digital technology in production and operations management, as well as equipment and systems for automation and manpower saving.

India - 720 of the 1,441 Japanese companies are in the manufacturing sector (as of October 2018)

Through July 5, the total number of people infected (424,000 who have recovered) and the number of deaths is 697,000 (424,000 who have recovered), with 19,693 deaths, with the relaxation of the lockdown since July 1, the number of infections has continued to increase rapidly, and 80% of Japanese company employees stationed in Japan have temporarily returned to Japan.

New car sales in April 2020 will be zero and the current auto industry utilization rate is a dismal 10% of pre-Corona.
Even before the corona crisis, the auto industry was already in a slump, with passenger car sales in fiscal 2019 falling 17.9% year-on-year to 2.77 million units. I did.

In the wake of the lockdown, the unemployment rate rose to the 23% level in April-May 2020, and the real GDP growth forecast is -4.3%, but like the rest of the world, the electronics market is doing well, posting an average annual growth rate of 26.7%, as the country hurries to move away from its dependence on imports, which account for about 90% of its electronics.

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